The 1.5°C Target
What is it and where did it come from?
1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5C) has become the critical goal for how much temperature rise, or global warming, we will attempt to allow. Its first official mention was in the Paris Agreement in 2016, due to pressure brought on by battle cries from at-risk communities and environmental advocates demanding more aggressive action.
In the last several years, damaging effects of climate change have become more apparent, more widespread, and the predictions of what could happen next are worsening. Experts anticipate species loss, lack of clean water supplies, reduced food production, and more violent weather and ocean patterns. These all originate from human emissions amplifying the greenhouse effect, which heats ocean waters, melts ice, and increases the water vapor in the atmosphere.¹ Unfortunately, these are the ideal conditions for more violent storms and the displacement of millions of people from their coastal or island homes.
In 2009 at the Copenhagen climate summit, the target was at 2C–an arbitrary estimate first suggested in the late 90’s by European leaders when environmental changes like Arctic melt, droughts and severe weather patterns were becoming more frequent. At that stage, the increase in global temperature had yet to reach even one degree. ²
Most recently at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), the 1.5 target was solidified and countries made further commitments to cut fossil fuel emissions and invest in a clean-energy future. More substantial measures and commitments are expected next year, and needed, because the current trajectory still leads to about a 2.4C temperature increase, which models predict will be catastrophic. ³
Like many climate topics, the 1.5C target comes with a sense of urgency, and makes clear the hole we’ve dug ourselves into. The one thing we can’t afford to do is bury our heads in the same hole. There are promising ways out– natural climate solutions, new green energy tech and smart agriculture just to name a few. It’s more important than ever before to keep our heads up and our hands busy.
References:
¹ - https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-long-term-effects-climate-change
³ - https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56901261